A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
